9 November – 15 November 2026
Last week the artificial-intelligence trade that powered markets all year long cracked, and technology shares suffered their worst period in months, as investors suddenly questioned whether the vast sums of capital poured into AI would ever pay off. The Nasdaq fell into correction territory as bubble-burst fears and trading volatility spiked through the roof. This week the spotlight partly swings away from that panic and back onto hard economic data. Tuesday's US inflation report is the decider, because it shapes whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again in December. Around it sit fresh energy forecasts from EIA and OPEC, Chinese trade figures, British growth numbers, and a heavy dose of company results that will retest the AI story directly.
US inflation is the week's main event
Investors will shift gears on Tuesday, when the United States publishes the results of its consumer price index, dubbed as one of the main measures of how fast prices are rising for everyday goods and services. Investors will focus on the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, to reveal how the underlying trend is faring. And this number matters because it feeds straight into the Federal Reserve's next decision in a month's time. The Federal Reserve stood still at the October meeting, but leaned heavily on the hawkish side, as policymakers explicitly favoured keeping rates high or raising them further given the price pressures, nudging market participants to assess a 70% probability that another 25bps hike is in the making. Pouring more fuel into the fire were last Friday’s payrolls results, and the odds were quickly bolstered and revised upwards to 81%, as the stronger-than-expected beat of the headline jobs number validates the scenario for stricter policy conditions from the Fed. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, more than double the 65,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. A hot inflation print would harden the case for another rate rise, most likely lifting the dollar and bond yields, while a soft print would possibly grant the doves more room to argue for a pause. After a week dominated by market fear rather than fundamentals, this is the number that could possibly reconnect the two.
The AI sell-off still sets the mood
Markets are still nursing the bruises from last week, when the technology-heavy Nasdaq index tumbled into what traders call a correction, recording a fall of more than 10% from its peak, in its sharpest sell-off event since the spring. The trigger was a sudden but unsurprising loss of faith in the protracted AI spending boom. Companies have poured hundreds of billions into data centres and chips, and investors began to ask, loudly, when those costs would turn into profit. Chipmakers led the slide and the drop rippled from Wall Street to Asia, and the VIX, a volatility gauge of expected swings, often called the fear index, jumped notably higher. There is no doubt that sentiment soured and remains fragile. The optimists argue the move was a healthy shake-out of a crowded, overpriced trade rather than a clear verdict on AI demand, while the bears see the first crack in an overbuilt, overfed development boom. The question this week is whether the selling steadies or feeds on itself. A key signpost is Anthropic, the AI firm that has filed to go public and is expected to price its market debut around the middle of the month on Nasdaq. Early reports suggest its valuation could be trimmed from about $1.5tn toward $1tn as the mood cools, making the listing an important read on how much appetite for AI risk survives.
Energy: oil, the Iran war and fresh supply forecasts
Oil remains the wild card that links politics to prices. The United States and Iran are still at war, and attention encircles the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane that carries a large chunk of the world's seaborne crude. Fresh attacks on tankers stuck a risk premium back into the oil price, with Brent trading near $100 a barrel and US crude near $89, after last week’s dramatic plunge. This matters far beyond the petrol pump, because costlier oil feeds through into inflation everywhere, which keeps central banks leaning toward higher rates. This week adds two important supply-and-demand checkpoints. On Tuesday the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the government's statistics arm, publishes its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which forecasts production, demand and prices for the months ahead. Around midweek OPEC, the group of major oil-exporting nations, releases its own monthly report on the market, with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) version close behind. Together they will show whether the world is heading for a surplus or a shortfall of crude. So now we may be approaching a forked road down the line. A truly lasting calm and the cessation of the conflict in the Gulf would drastically drain the war premium and ease price pressures, whereas any further escalation of tensions and renewals of military campaigns against Iran could re-arm traders with confidence to smash the bids just as the fresh forecasts land.
China's trade figures take the economy's pulse
China turns the focus onto trade this week, with October figures on its exports and imports. These numbers are a window onto two things at once. Exports show how much the world still wants Chinese goods, and whether the factories that drive the economy are busy, while imports reveal how strong demand is at home. The recent story has been lopsided. Exports have carried the economy even as trade tensions with the United States still boil, while imports have been relatively weak, a sign that Chinese households and businesses remain cautious about spending. A slip in exports would raise worries that global demand is cooling, and soft imports would confirm that the domestic recovery is still fragile. For the rest of the world the readings cut both ways. A “weaker” China tends to export cheaper goods, which helps cool global inflation, but it also means less demand for the commodities and the foreign firms that sell into the country. The trade data is therefore a key piece of the global growth puzzle, and a timely one in a week when growth and inflation are back in the driving seats.
Britain's economy gets a health check
Britain delivers the week's main European data on Thursday, with its first estimate of gross domestic product, or GDP, the broadest measure of everything the economy produces, for the three months to September. It follows growth of 0.4% in the prior quarter, and the reading will show whether activity held up at the period where the Bank of England began raising interest rates for the first time in years. The growth figure lands at a delicate moment given that BoE’s move came with a warning that inflation could climb toward 5%, alongside a quasi-controversial government budget which is watched intensely for cracks. A strong number would support the Bank's tougher stance, while a weak one would sharpen debate around its trade-off between taming prices and protecting jobs.
A heavy week of earnings puts the AI story on trial
The market's central question, whether AI spending is worth it, gets possibly answered this week by the companies at the heart of it. AI-infrastructure names are seen dominating and capturing the attention this week also, including names in the likes of CoreWeave, which rents out computing power for AI, alongside Nebius and the chip challenger Cerebras. Furthermore, Applied Materials, which builds the machines that make semiconductors, and Cisco, whose networking gear wires up data centres, round up the eyeballs around the group. Their sales and order books will either justify the enormous investment in AI or expose it for front-running ahead of reality. Beyond the AI core, a multifaceted cast reports earnings too. Disney offers a read on the ordinary consumer, the games maker Take-Two and the rocket firm Rocket Lab fill out a varied slate, and from Europe and Asia heavyweight names such as SoftBank, the technology investor, Vodafone, the telecoms group, Germany's E.ON utility and the industrial giant Siemens will all bring forth their respective results. After a week in which sentiment cracked, investors will be listening less to upbeat forecasts and more to hard numbers on demand, margins and spending plans. Strong results could steady the market’s haywired nerves, while any disappointment would feed the doubts that drove the sell-off.
